Current awareness for application of models in resource management. Scientific abstracts on systems dynamics and agent-based models. Support for a senior undergraduate course at the University of Alberta. Emphasis on elephants and ivory -- the basis of a group term project.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Kenya Wildlife Agents Kill 2 Elephant Poachers : NPR
This brings the number of poachers shot dead by agents of the wildlife service to five, the most killed in a month, said spokesman Paul Udoto."
Friday, November 12, 2010
Rhino warriors
SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: WWF is asking for the public
to show their support on Make Noise for Rhinos Day
South Africa, proud stronghold of the African black and white rhino with more than 90 per cent of Africa's rhino populations, has been losing at least 20 of the animals per month. In the past four years, about 600 rhinos were poached across the African continent."
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Employing participatory surveys to monitor the illegal killing of elephants across diverse land uses in Laikipia–Samburu, Kenya - Kahindi - 2009 - African Journal of Ecology - Wiley Online Library
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
The home range fractal: From random walk to memory-dependent space use
We present theoretical developments of the multi-scaled random walk (MRW) model for cognitive map-influenced space use by animals. The extensions include a unified space–time scaling function, and further details with respect to statistical properties of the spatial distribution of a set of locations. Supported by numeric simulations we show how memory effects may open for a complex, multi-scaled and self-organized – i.e., intrinsically driven – habitat utilization pattern with fractal dimensional properties. These properties allow for testing for MRW compliance by using parameters from classic movement models like Brownian motion, correlated random walk and Levy walks as null models.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
The ontologies of complexity and learning about complex systems
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : A parsimonious optimal foraging model explaining mortality patterns in Serengeti wildebeest
Wildebeest follow a single decision rule in good and poor rainfall years, viz. move when foraging elsewhere increases your rate of intake of nutritious food. Similarly, predators follow a single decision rule in good and poor rainfall years, viz. take the prey item that maximizes the intake of energy per unit effort expended. This parsimonious model does not require differences in predator sensitivity as required by Sinclair and Arcese's (1995) model. I indicate ways in which my model can be falsified.
Multimodel inference and adaptive management
Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.